Although the Philippines is the only Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) country (of 10 countries) that has not set a net zero target, it aims to increase the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in its electricity mix to 35 per cent by 2030 and 50 per cent by 2040 (from over 16 per cent currently) and interconnect its islands through a unified electricity grid to enhance power sharing and optimise generation.
This requires substantial investment in transmission infrastructure, which is managed and operated by the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP), a private consortium jointly owned by the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC), with 40 per cent ownership, Philippines-based Synergy Grid and Development Philippines and its subsidiaries Monte Oro Grid Resources Corporation and Calaca High Power Corporation (together owning 40 per cent), and sovereign wealth fund Maharlika Investment Corporation (20 per cent). However, in recent years, the company has been under Congressional probe into its compliance with franchise obligations, including delays in several projects, and its ownership, particularly due to the presence of the SGCC. According to the Department of Energy (DOE), almost all NGCP projects between 2016 and 2024 were delayed, some by over nine years.
In March 2025, the NGCP outlined its future plans for further investment in the grid in its latest Transmission Development Plan (TDP) 2025-50, which revises the previous 2024 version with new data and strategies, aligning with the government’s RES targets. It includes projects worth about PhP 485.2 billion, which will result in an addition of 2,148 ckt km and 23,325 MVA of transformation capacity by 2034. The 2024 version had already identified projects worth PhP 621 billion, including lines and substation capacity aggregating around 3,000 ckt km and 40,300 MVA respectively. Therefore, the NGCP has outlined plans for projects worth over PhP 1.1 trillion for the next decade.
Southeast Asia Infrastructure presents the key highlights of the Philippines’ existing energy infrastructure and future plans outlined in the NGCP’s latest TDP…
Existing infrastructure
The Philippines had an installed generation capacity of 30,487 MW as of February 28, 2025. Coal accounted for the largest share at around 43 per cent of installed capacity at 13,006 MW, followed by natural gas and oil, which accounted for 3,732 MW (12 per cent) and 3,448 MW (11 per cent) respectively. The remaining 34 per cent was contributed by renewable energy – 3,836 MW of hydro, 2,857 MW of solar, 1,952 MW of geothermal, 427 MW of wind, 595 MW of biomass and 634 MW of energy storage systems (ESSs). Region-wise, Luzon accounts for most of the capacity at over 74 per cent (21,742 MW), followed by Mindanao (16 per cent) and Visayas (14 per cent).
As of December 2024, the country’s power transmission network comprised 23,110 ckt km of transmission lines, 58,653 MVA of substation capacity and 215 substations distributed across the different voltage level of 69 kV to 500 kV AC and ±350 kV high voltage direct current. Like the generation infrastructure, the national transmission system is divided into three main regional grids – Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.
Future demand and capacity expansion
As mentioned earlier, the NGCP used the DOE’s SPD forecast and generation expansion plan to plan the necessary transmission facilities and maintain adequate power supply under the TDP. The total national system peak demand forecast is estimated to increase by over 2.5 times over the next 15 years from 20,669 MW in 2025 to 53,679 MW in 2040, with interim estimates of 28,631 MW in 2030 and 39,506 MW in 2035.
The DOE’s energy outlook has two scenarios for the country’s energy transition – the reference scenario (REF) and the clean energy scenario (CES), reflecting current energy policies and the potential of aggressive clean energy targets within the planning horizon respectively. The Philippines has several committed power plant projects extending beyond 2030. As of October 2024, a committed capacity of 17,249 MW is expected to be connected to the grid. Of this, over 53 per cent is expected to be from RES, led by solar (5,976 MW) and wind (2,125 MW), 35.2 per cent (6,070 MW) from natural gas sources, and 11.7 per cent (2,026 MW) from coal- and oil-based sources. Additionally, the DOE has identified over 94,823 MW of indicative capacity that could potentially be integrated into the grid in the future. Over 90 per cent of the capacity will be from RES, especially wind (65,896 MW), solar (12,122 MW) and hydropower (7,316 MW), along with around 7 per cent (7,148 MW) based on natural gas. The indicative list includes 34,717 MW of offshore wind (OSW) projects (across Luzon and Visayas), which is 37 per cent of the total capacity.
While the projected grid capacity appears sufficient until 2035, the NGCP has flagged concerns over the low realisation rate of committed and indicative power plants. Only 28 per cent of the committed and indicative power projects between 2020 and 2024 (as per the Private Sector Initiated Power Projects report of June 2020) reached commercial operation as of October 2024. Further, for committed projects to obtain grid connectivity, they must be included in the NGCP’s planning horizon and undergo a necessary system impact study.
Transmission expansion
The NGCP has outlined an extensive plan to expand and modernise the transmission infrastructure across the three grids, including island interconnection projects, to meet the country’s increasing electricity demand and facilitate RES integration. As per its latest TDP, by 2034, the NGCP aims to add approximately 5,145 km of transmission lines and 63,625 MVA of transformation capacity at the 69 kV to 500 kV voltage levels at an investment of PhP 1,106 billion. This excludes an additional investment of over PhP 86.6 billion and PhP 39 billion planned for the operation and maintenance (O&M) of the transmission network and for system operations up to 2050. While O&M expenses essentially pertain to substation and transmission/sub-transmission line reliability programmes, system operations investment includes supervisory control and data acquisition systems, telecommunication and protection components of the grid.
In terms of grid projects, the NGCP will invest the highest in strengthening the Luzon grid. Notably, in the initial five years, the focus will be on projects that support the adequacy and reliability of supply to Metro Manila (the country’s centre of commerce and trade), and accommodate generation capacities in the province of Batangas and in the Bataan and Zambales areas. This includes the development of the 230 kV Taguig-Taytay line and the installation of three 500/230 kV substations around Metro Manila to be complemented by 230/115 kV substations. To address the forecast load growth in other areas, several 230 kV substations have been planned (including Lal-lo, Pinili, San Simon, Porac, Capas, Castillejos and Abuyog).
Beyond 2030, the focus will be on extending the 500 kV transmission backbone from Nagsaag to Santiago, and adding new 500 kV substations in Palauig and Tagkawayan, besides upgrading ageing transmission facilities and improving system reliability in the Luzon grid. In the long run, the 500 kV backbone will be extended to Tublijon in the south to accommodate onshore wind and OSW capacities.
In Visayas, new submarine cables (at 138 kV and 230 kV) will be laid to link the Boracay, Guimaras and Bohol islands, Cebu and Leyte islands, and Cebu and Mactan islands to accommodate the growth in demand and utilise excess generation, particularly from the Leyte and Luzon islands. In Mindanao, the plan focuses on extending the 230 kV, 138 kV and 69 kV networks and upgrading and expanding several substations, such as the Laguindingan, Koronadal and Kabacan substations.
Grid modernisation will help the Philippines meet rising demand and sustainability goals. The TDP provides a road map for the country’s energy transition as it aims to increase the use of RES for generation and extend grid interconnections to the islands. With the recent stake acquisition in the NGCP, the government can push the company forward to deliver the TDP through a strong project pipeline, ensuring reliable, affordable and clean energy supply.
