Indonesia’s power sector is at a crossroads as it transitions from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. The country is balancing the need to meet the rising energy demand of a growing economy (projected to grow at 8 per cent by 2029 from around 5 per cent currently), modernise its power infrastructure and achieve ambitious climate goals, particularly net zero emissions (NZE) by 2060 or sooner. After almost two years of preparation, on May 26, 2025, the Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) or Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources released the long-awaited Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik (RUPTL) 2025-2034 or Electricity Supply Business Plan of PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) (Persero), Indonesia’s state-owned integrated electricity company.
The latest edition, RUPTL 2025-34, builds on the 2021-30 cycle and is in alignment with the draft Kebijakan Energi Nasional or the National Energy Policy (2024), Rencana Umum Ketenagalistrikan Nasional (RUKN) or the National Electricity General Plan (March 2025), and the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), launched in 2022 by the Indonesian government and the International Partners Group comprising Japan, the US, the European Union and eight other developed countries to help Indonesia’s energy transition. The RUPTL combines technical targets, policy directives and investment frameworks into a unified blueprint to meet rising demand and accelerate Indonesia’s energy sector transformation.
The plan aims for a shift towards low-carbon generation, with 61 per cent of the planned capacity addition (69.5 GW) over the next decade expected to come from renewable sources such as solar, hydropower, geothermal, wind, bioenergy and energy-storage systems. This marks a sharp departure from previous, more incremental targets and reflects Indonesia’s JETP-aligned goals for decarbonisation, energy security and equity.
That said, generation alone will not suffice for an archipelago of over 17,000 islands. To support the upcoming capacity, the plan includes substantial investments in new transmission lines and substations with targets of 47,758 km and 107,950 MVA respectively over the next decade. Central to this transmission expansion is the ambitious “Green Enabling Super Grid”, designed to overcome the mismatch between the renewable energy potential in the outer islands and the demand centres in Java and Bali. This initiative is aligned with PLN’s smart grid strategy, which aims to reduce technical losses and enable better load management through the integration of large-scale renewable energy. A key focus will be on improving the interconnection of regional grids beyond the main Java-Madura-Bali (JAMALI) grid, especially in Sulawesi and Kalimantan.
RUPTL 2025-2034 involves a projected investment of IDR 2,970 trillion across generation, transmission, distribution and rural electrification. The plan is expected to help Indonesia achieve its 2029 economic growth target and create more than 1.7 million new jobs, driving green investment and strengthening national energy resilience.
Scenarios and generation capacity expansion
RUPTL 2025-2034 considers two pathways – the RE Base and Accelerated Renewable Energy Development (ARED) scenarios. The report incorporates projections based on the ARED pathway, which aims to increase the share of renewable capacity to 35 per cent by 2034 compared to 14.2 per cent as of May 2025.
Indonesia’s power generation outlook for the next decade is defined by an ambitious leap in capacity and a transition towards clean energy. RUPTL 2025-2034 targets 69.5 GW of additional capacity, representing the most aggressive clean energy push in the country’s history.
Renewable energy sources are expected to contribute most of the installed power capacity target under the ARED scenario. Complementing renewables is 10.3 GW of storage, comprising 6 GW of pumped storage hydropower that leverages existing reservoir infrastructure to deliver multi-hour flexibility and 4.3 GW of battery energy storage systems (BESSs), which offer rapid response to fluctuations in supply and demand.
Nuclear power plants are also planned, with operations expected in 2032 and 2033, contributing 500 MW. Conventional gas plants account for another 10.3 GW, while coal units add 6.3 GW, reflecting that fossil-based baseload generation will remain a part of Indonesia’s energy mix for much of the coming decade. This is a departure from the JETP Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan 2023 proposal for early coal-fired power plant retirements. Region-wise targets include JAMALI (19.6 GW), Sumatra (9.5 GW), Sulawesi (7.7 GW), Kalimantan (3.5 GW) and Maluku-Papua-Nusa Tenggara (2.3 GW).
Indonesia’s renewable expansion will follow a two-phase rollout strategy, with a planned addition of 12.2 GW during the first five years (up to 2029) and 30.4 GW in the second phase (2030-34). This back-loaded approach prioritises grid stability and infrastructure development in the early years before accelerating renewables deployment, with nearly three-quarters of all renewable capacity additions concentrated in the latter half of the decade.
Transmission infrastructure expansion
To integrate the huge influx of renewable capacity over the next decade, PLN plans to augment transmission infrastructure at an unprecedented scale, adding 47,758 km of new transmission lines and 107,950 MVA of substation capacity across 70-500 kV voltages. Over two-thirds of the line length additions will take place at 150 kV (67 per cent), followed by 500 kV (both AC and DC) (19 per cent) and 275 kV (13 per cent). In terms of transformation capacity, over 52 per cent of the additions will take place at 500 kV, followed by 33 per cent at 150 kV and 14 per cent at 275 kV.
Smart grid integration and digital transformation
RUPTL 2025-2034 integrates smart grid technologies into transmission expansion through PLN’s comprehensive digitalisation strategy. In addition to the deployment of HVDC for long-distance transmission, the plan includes flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS) for enhanced grid flexibility, reactive power management systems and digital substations with advanced monitoring capabilities.
The implementation of this strategy follows a three-phase roll-out with Phase I (2027-28) covering 12 provinces, Phase II (2029-30) expanding to 17 provinces and Phase III (2031-33) completing national coverage. This systematic approach maintains grid reliability during the transition while enabling real-time management and rapid response to system disturbances. This comprehensive grid modernisation handles renewable energy integration complexity while ensuring reliable electricity supply during emergencies.
Investment and financing
Indonesia’s RUPTL 2025-2034 represents one of the most ambitious energy infrastructure programmes in Southeast Asia, with a projected investment of IDR 2,970 trillion strategically allocated across five major investment categories. The investment portfolio reveals a clear prioritisation of power generation capacity, with independent power producer power plants commanding the largest share at IDR 1,566 trillion over the decade, representing 53 per cent of total funding and demonstrating Indonesia’s commitment to leveraging private sector participation in its energy transition. The generation sector receives the most substantial allocation, totalling IDR 2,133 trillion across both PLN and IPP developments, with PLN’s own generation investments amounting to IDR 567 trillion over the 10-year period.
Infrastructure receives significant investment allocation, with transmission and grid infrastructure receiving IDR 392 trillion over the decade, representing 13 per cent of total investments. Distribution network expansion requires IDR 173 trillion for extensive network development. Other investments, including interest during construction and maintenance capital expenditure, account for IDR 272 trillion, reflecting the substantial financing and operational costs associated with this decade-long infrastructure programme. Unlike the generation segment, where IPPs are expected to finance most of the new capacity, PLN maintains control over transmission and distribution infrastructure investments.
The investment profile shows significant variation across the decade, with annual investments ranging from around IDR 200 trillion in 2034 to peaks of about IDR 453 trillion each in 2031 and 2033. The investment intensity will increase in the latter half of the decade. PLN’s funding strategy encompasses multiple sources including internal funds from operating profits and asset depreciation, external loans (foreign sub-loan agreements, direct lending, government investment funds, national and international bonds), and Penyertaan Modal Negara or state capital participation through direct government equity injection.
Conclusion
RUPTL 2025-2034 enables Indonesia to achieve energy system transformation through coordinated generation and transmission planning that can drive both economic growth and decarbonisation. Although the plan stops short of committing to early retirement or phase-out of coal capacity, it places substantial emphasis on renewables, digital infrastructure and private sector participation, laying the groundwork for a cleaner, more resilient grid. Its success depends on synchronised execution, aligning generation roll-outs with grid readiness and integrating emerging technologies such as BESSs and smart grids. Strong collaboration across government, utilities, developers, financiers and communities will be essential. With a focus on innovation and long-term resilience, RUPTL 2025-2034 establishes a blueprint for sustainable power sector development. If effectively implemented, it could offer valuable lessons in building future-ready energy systems that balance growth, access and climate goals, setting a benchmark for the global energy transition in complex, distributed geographies.
