After clean tech, electrifying vehicles is the biggest global transition theme. Currently, ASEAN lags behind the developed markets due to lower affordability and smaller-scale investments. It could benefit from battery manufacturing, EV exports and shared/micro-mobility. Indonesia and Thailand are best placed due to their natural resources and large auto industry. Vietnam and Malaysia could benefit if policies are catalyzed for EV transition.
A recently published report by Maybank titled “ASEAN Mobility: Poised for EV Acceleration” explores the prospects and challenges of the region’s transition to EVs. The report highlights the sustainability disclosures of automakers in the ASEAN region to understand their strategy to transition to EVs.
ASEAN – 6 markets had aggregate energy emissions of 1.6b tonnes of tCO2e in 2021, which accounts for 4.7% of total global emissions. Within the ASEAN – 6 markets, Indonesia is the largest emitter with a 38% share, due to a high share of coal mining, followed by Vietnam at 20%, Thailand at 17% and Malaysia at 16%. The Philippines is 8% whereas Singapore is 2% of the total. India’s energy emissions were 2.7b tonnes in 2021, which is 7% of global emissions. Transportation sector emissions account for 22% of the energy emissions on average in the ASEAN-6 – 6 markets vs the global average of 23% and India at 13%. Vietnam is the lowest at 13%, whereas the Philippines and Thailand are at 26%.
EV car sales in ASEAN surged to about 50,851 in 2022 from 15,926 in 2021, driven by the launch of new models. Despite the sharp increase, EV sales were just 2.1% of the region’s passenger vehicle sales. BEVs accounted for 67% of the EV sales vs 33% in 2021. BEVs were a meagre 1-4% in 2015-18. Thailand leads within the ASEAN countries, contributing more than 50% of the region’s EV sales, followed by Indonesia and Vietnam.
The ASEAN 2-wh market is the 3rd largest globally with 12.9m units sold in 2022. EV sales have increased in the past couple of years after a slump in 2019. EV sales formed 4% of total sales in 2022. Vietnam remains the largest market, capturing more than 95% of the EV sales.
BloombergNEF forecasts ASEAN’s annual electric passenger vehicle sales to reach 2.7-2.9m by 2040, making up 62-64% of total annual passenger vehicle sales in ASEAN. In the near term, favourable government regulations in the form of concessional taxes for imports and the setting up of facilities should double EV sales.
EV 2-wh sales growth will remain robust, driven by the entry of start-ups and driven by faster adoption of scooters. The ease of charging through home charging or battery swapping will also drive faster adoption. BloombergNEF forecasts ASEAN 2-wh sales to reach 12m units by 2040 with larger ASEAN markets such as Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia taking the lead.
Access the full report here.